Climate Change Attorney Blog

NASA is continuing a multi-year study which, so far, is demonstrating that Arctic permafrost is warming more rapidly than the air. In a release this week the situation in the Arctic is referred to as the "canary in the coal mine" for climate change.

The extreme conditions in the Arctic prevent decomposition of most plant and animal material. Each year there is a partial thaw which allows vegetation to grow, which then dies and is added to the permafrost when the colder weather returns. The result is thousands of years of stored organic material. The report notes:

"...Arctic permafrost soils have accumulated vast stores of organic carbon - an estimated 1,400 to 1,850 petagrams of it (a petagram is 2.2 trillion pounds, or 1 billion metric tons). That's about half of all the estimated organic carbon stored in Earth's soils. In comparison, about 350 petagrams of carbon have been emitted from all fossil-fuel combustion and human activities since 1850. Most of this carbon is located in thaw-vulnerable topsoils within 10 feet (3 meters) of the surface."

The concern is that as the permafrost warms the carbon stores may be released as CO2 and/or methane.

"It's important to accurately characterize the soils and state of the land surfaces. There's a strong correlation between soil characteristics and release of carbon dioxide and methane. Historically, the cold, wet soils of Arctic ecosystems have stored more carbon than they have released. If climate change causes the Arctic to get warmer and drier, scientists expect most of the carbon to be released as carbon dioxide. If it gets warmer and wetter, most will be in the form of methane.

The distinction is critical. Molecule per molecule, methane is 22 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide on a 100-year timescale, and 105 times more potent on a 20-year timescale. If just one percent of the permafrost carbon released over a short time period is methane, it will have the same greenhouse impact as the 99 percent that is released as carbon dioxide. "

-Steven Silverberg

On June 11, 2013 New York City Mayor Bloomberg announced a plan for the City to address the impacts of climate change. The full report details a multi-billion dollar plan described in the introduction as providing initiatives that:

"...will further protect the coastline—our first defense against storms and rising sea levels—as well as strengthen the buildings in which New Yorkers live and work, and all the vital systems that support the life of the city, including our energy grid, transportation systems, parks, telecommunications networks, healthcare system, and water and food supplies. Meanwhile, for the areas of New York that Sandy hit especially hard, this plan proposes local rebuilding initiatives that will help these communities emerge safer, stronger, and better than ever.

The underlying goal of this report is resiliency. That is, to adapt our city to the impacts of climate change and to seek to ensure that, when nature overwhelms our defenses from time to time, we are able to recover more quickly."

-Steven M. Silverberg

The United States and China have agreed to work to "phase down" HFCs. In a press release the White House announced:

" ...the United States and China agreed to work together and with other countries through multilateral approaches that include using the expertise and institutions of the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of HFCs...Every country in the world is a party to the Protocol, and it has successfully phased out or is in the process of phasing out several key classes of chemicals, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and halons. The transitions out of CFCs and HCFCs provide major ozone layer protection benefits, but the unintended consequence is the rapid current and projected future growth of climate-damaging HFCs."

-Steven M. Silverberg

The conservation group, Scenic Hudson has developed maps demonstrating the potential impacts of sea level rise along the Hudson River. Noting that over the last century the river has risen about one foot, the Scenic Hudson's site indicates the river is expected to rise by as much as another six feet over the next century.

Scenic Hudson has created what it calls the "Sea Level Rise Mapper." It explains the Sea Level Rise Mapper may be used as "a tool for communities and stakeholders to create visualizations of future scenarios of sea level rise."

-Steven Silverberg

For the first time in what is believed to be 3 million years, carbon dioxide levels were recorded this week at 400 ppm on top of the 11,000 foot Mauna Loa mountain in Hawaii. As noted by National Geographic, the last time CO2 was at those levels:

" the Earth then was in the final stage of a prolonged greenhouse epoch, and CO2 concentrations were on their way down. This time, 400 ppm is a milepost on a far more rapid uphill climb toward an uncertain climate future."

-Steven Silverberg

NASA released a study predicting that, with increased global warming, areas prone to heavy rains will see increases in rainfall while areas prone to drought will experience even less rainfall. The the announcement of the study released on May 3, 2013 notes:

"The models project for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of carbon dioxide-induced warming, heavy rainfall will increase globally by 3.9 percent and light rain will increase globally by 1 percent. However, total global rainfall is not projected to change much because moderate rainfall will decrease globally by 1.4 percent....Some regions outside the tropics may have no rainfall at all. The models also projected for every degree Fahrenheit of warming, the length of periods with no rain will increase globally by 2.6 percent. "

-Steven Silverberg

A study released on March 31, 2013 projects a significant increase in Arctic tree cover and resultant impacts on climate change into the 2050s. As reported in Science Daily, a study appearing in Nature Climate Change Projects a 50% increase in wooded areas. The increase in tree cover is projected to absorb greater heat and therefore add further to global warming.

-Steven Silverberg

On March 26, 2013 the Obama Administration released what it calls the "first nationwide strategy to help public and private decision makers address the impacts that climate change is having on natural resources and the people and economies that depend on them." In a press release the Climate Adaptation Strategy for Fish, Wildlife and Plants is referred to as providing "a roadmap of key steps needed over the next five years to reduce the current and expected impacts of climate change."

The strategy sets for seven steps for safeguarding fish, wildlife and plants as:

" Conserve habitat to support healthy fish, wildlife, and plant populations and ecosystem functions;

Manage species and habitats to protect ecosystem functions and provide sustainable commercial, subsistence, recreational and cultural use;

Enhance capacity for effective management;

Support adaptive management through integrated observation and monitoring and use of decision support tools;

Increase knowledge and information on impacts and responses of fish, wildlife, and plants;

Increase awareness and motivate action to safeguard fish, wildlife, and plants; and

Reduce non-climate stressors to help fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems adapt"

The process in developing the strategy was led by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, other Departments of the U.S. Government and the New York DEC, representing state governments.

-Steven Silverberg

The State Department released the Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) for the controversial Keystone XL Pipeline last week. Along with the full report is a summary of the history of the project.

The discussion of the impacts of climate change on the proposed pipeline, while acknowledging significant ongoing changes in temperature and weather patterns, concluded in section 4.14.2.2:

"In summer, warmer summer temperatures, increased number of hot days, increased number of consecutive hot days and longer summers are predicted, which could lead to impacts associated with heat stress and wildfire risks. Keystone has confirmed that the proposed Project is designed in accordance with U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) regulations and the PHMSA 57 Special Conditions (Appendix B), and that these design standards are sufficient to accommodate an increased number of hot days or consecutive hot days. Keystone has also stated that because the proposed pipeline would be buried to at least 4 feet of cover to the top of the pipe, it would be below most surface temperature impacts, including wild fires and frequent freezing and thawing (Keystone 2012)."

The level of emissions from the pipeline during operations are described in section 4.12.3.2:

"The total annual GHG emissions from the operation of the pipeline, as shown above, amount to 3.19 million metric tons per year of CO2e2. The annual CO2e emissions from the proposed Project is equivalent to CO2e emissions from approximately 626,000 passenger vehicles operating for one year, or 398,000 homes using electricity for one year.3 Recommended GHG mitigation measures during proposed Project operation are listed in Section 4.12.4.2, Greenhouse Gases."

Section 4.12.4.2 recommendations for mitigation of GHGs during operations are as follows:

"During proposed Project operations, the following mitigation measures are recommended to reduce GHG emissions to the atmosphere:
• Ensure that all pumps are maintained in accordance with manufacturer’s recommendations;
• Consider use of high efficient pump specifications;
• Consider arrangement of pumps to optimize efficiency; and
• Consider the purchase of green electricity from the grid."

There is a 45 day public comment period. Comments may be sent to keystonecomments@state.gov

-Steven Silverberg

NASA has released a report showing severe impacts on a large area of the Amazon rain forest resulting from the effects of climate change. The report notes that a 2005 drought, likely resulting from the same weather patterns that brought severe weather to the Southern United States, severely impacted 270,000 square miles of the forest with an even larger area having less severe impacts.

The report found that the impacts of the drought were more long lasting than anticipated. As a result, the forest had not fully recovered from the 2005 drought when another drought hit in 2010 that impacted nearly half the forest. NASA notes

"The drought rate in Amazonia during the past decade is unprecedented over the past century. In addition to the two major droughts in 2005 and 2010, the area has experienced several localized mini-droughts in recent years. Observations from ground stations show that rainfall over the southern Amazon rainforest declined by almost 3.2 percent per year in the period from 1970 to 1998. Climate analyses for the period from 1995 to 2005 show a steady decline in water availability for plants in the region. Together, these data suggest a decade of moderate water stress led up to the 2005 drought, helping trigger the large-scale forest damage seen following the 2005 drought."

-Steven M. Silverberg

The National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee has released a draft climate assessment report for public comment. The Draft Report discusses the various aspects of climate change and specific impacts on the various regions of the United States.

The Executive Summary provides an overview of the report with cross references to topics contained in specific chapters.

Noting human contribution to climate change the Executive Summary states:

"Human-induced climate change means much more than just hotter weather. Increases in ocean and freshwater temperatures, frost-free days, and heavy downpours have all been documented.Sea level has risen, and there have been large reductions in snow-cover extent, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. Winter storms along the west coast and the coast of New England have increased slightly in frequency and intensity. These changes and other climatic changes have affected and will continue to affect human health, water supply, agriculture, transportation, energy, and many other aspects of society (Ch. 2,3,4,5,6,10,12,16,20,24,25)."

The Executive Summary goes on to note:
" As climate change and its impacts are becoming more prevalent, Americans face choices. As a result of past emissions of heat-trapping gases, some amount of additional climate change and related impacts is now unavoidable. This is due to the long-lived nature of many of these gases, the amount of heat absorbed and retained by the oceans, and other responses within the climate system. However, beyond the next few decades, the amount of climate change will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions. Lower emissions mean less future warming and less severe impacts; higher emissions would mean more warming and more severe impacts. The choices about emissions pathway fall into a category of response options usually referred to as “mitigation” – ways to reduce the amount and speed of future climate change by reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases (Ch. 2, 26, 27)."

For those who are interested, there is a link in order to create an account and comment on the draft.

-Steven M. Silverberg

In the Environmental Research Letter released this week in IOP Science, a new study concludes that recent projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underestimate actual sea level rise. The study concludes: " the rise in CO2 concentration and global temperature has continued to closely match the projections over the past five years, while sea level continues to rise faster than anticipated. The latter suggests that the 21st Century sea-level projections of the last two IPCC reports may be systematically biased low. Further support for this concern is provided by the fact that the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are increasingly losing mass (Rignot et al 2011, Van den Broeke et al 2011), while those IPCC projections assumed that Antarctica will gain enough mass in future to largely compensate mass losses from Greenland (see figure 10.33 in Meehl et al (2007))."